Súvislosť medzi zaočkovanosťou a šírením ochorenia COVID-19: analýza na úrovni okresov Slovenskej republiky
Abstrakt
Táto prípadová štúdia vyvracia niektoré kontroverzné zistenia o malej súvislosti medzi zaočkovanosťou a šírením COVID-19. Snažíme sa odstraňovať niektoré metodologické nedostatky a riziká, ktoré sú obsiahnuté v takýchto doteraz publikovaných štúdiách. Po prvé, náš výber zahŕňa všetky regionálne jednotky v jednej krajine (všetky okresy SR). Po druhé, kvalita údajov je v podstate rovnaká vo všetkých skúmaných okresoch v rámci krajiny. Po tretie, všetky slovenské okresy mali rovnakú východiskovú pozíciu. Boli v rovnakých štádiách vlny COVID-19 a prijaté opatrenia boli analogické vo všetkých okresoch. Slovensko s výrazne rozdielnou zaočkovanosťou medzi regiónmi je veľmi vhodným študijným prípadom. Použili sme empirické údaje na úrovni jeho oblastí LAU 1 pre dve najnovšie vlny COVID-19 v tom čase (Delta, Omicron). V štúdii boli použité metódy regresnej analýzy a geoštatistické metódy. Nepochybne existuje zjavná súvislosť medzi zaočkovanosťou a šírením COVID-19. Ukázali sme, že trajektórie výskytu medzi okresmi sa líšia v závislosti od zaočkovanosti. Pozitivita a incidencia v najviac zaočkovaných okresných populáciách bola za celé analyzované obdobie výrazne nižšia ako v najmenej zaočkovaných okresoch. Ich hodnoty v najlepšie zaočkovaných oblastiach boli počas vrcholov delta a omikrónovej vlny nižšie zhruba o 20–25 %. Pomocou priestorovej autokorelácie sa nám tiež podarilo jednoznačne identifikovať úzky vzťah medzi zaočkovanosťou na jednej strane a štandardizovanou incidenciou a pozitivitou na strane druhej, hoci niektoré regióny sa od tohto všeobecného zistenia odchýlili.
Abstract
This case study refutes some controversial findings about a minor connection between the vaccination coverage and the spread of COVID-19. We try to eliminate some methodological shortcomings and risks, which are included in such previously published studies. Firstly, our selection comprises all regional units in one country. Secondly, the quality of data is basically identical in all examined regions within the country. Thirdly, all Slovak regions had an equal starting position. They were at the same stages of the COVID-19 wave, and the measures taken were analogous in all regions. Slovakia with a significantly different vaccination rates among regions is a very suitable study case. We used the empirical data at the level of its LAU 1 regions for the two latest COVID-19 waves at that time (Delta, Omicron). The methods of regression analysis and geostatistical methods were applied in the study. Indubitably, there is an obvious link between the vaccination coverage and the spread of COVID-19. We have shown that the incidence-trajectories among regions vary based on the vaccination rates. The positivity and incidence in the most vaccinated regional populations were significantly lower than in the least vaccinated regions in a whole analyzed period. Their values in the best vaccinated regions were lower by roughly 20–25 % during the delta and omicron wave-peaks. Using the spatial autocorrelation, we also managed to clearly identify a close relationship between vaccination on the one hand and standardized incidence and positivity on the other hand, although some regions deviated from this general finding.
Kľúčové slová / Keywords
COVID-19, priestorová analýza, priestorové šírenie, zaočkovanosť, Slovensko
COVID-19, Spatial analysis, Spatial spread, Vaccination coverage, Slovakia
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